Like most graduates who started out in investment banking, I did two “summer analyst” stints. During both summers and in my first year as an analyst, I spent the entirety of my Saturday sending out a market update to the entire customer and prospect base of the investment bank. I’d scour equity and bond market news, dive into the latest non-farm payroll data, and watch Ben Bernanke (in those days!) like a hawk.

Last week, I had a chilling reminder of those 100-hour weeks when markets lurched into turmoil. I haven’t written a market update in over 12 years, but I’ve found myself in increasingly frequent conversations with CFOs and VC friends who are asking me directly: What’s your take? What should we be doing? So I thought I’d share it here.

What we’re seeing in the markets is a short-term reaction to something far more structural. We are living in a fundamentally different world—one where supply chains aren’t just operational concerns; they’re central to strategy, resilience, and even national security. Ray Dalio talks about this as part of a broader paradigm shift, a period of declining global coordination and rising internal and external pressures that are reshaping how capital flows and decisions get made. It’s not just volatility—it’s a new baseline.

And nowhere is that tension more acute than in supplier management, finance, and procurement. The uncomfortable truth is that the next few years will be defined by unpredictability—financial, operational, geopolitical—and the only real move is to control what you can. Luckily, no function is better positioned to do that than procurement.

Cutting headcount won’t solve the problem anymore. Most companies have already made those cuts. The cultural damage and operational fragility that follow another round of layoffs could do more harm than good. One-time dopamine hits aren’t enough—you need long-term discipline and sustainable impact. And the most obvious place to find that? Your supplier base.

It’s still wild to me that companies spend millions on tools to manage cybersecurity, financial audit, and compliance, yet leave massive commercial risk—supplier relationships, renewals, exposure—completely unmonitored. Indirect spend often makes up 20–40% of a company’s total cost base, and yet it’s often scattered across emails, spreadsheets, Slack threads, and siloed systems.

Fredrik Hjelm, Founder / CEO of Voi, put it well at an Omnea event in Stockholm recently: “What do you cut first? Indirect spend, of course. Because it’s always easier to cut that than take out people and FTEs.”

I see this playing out across every sector and company size. Leaders aren’t pausing projects—they’re proactively preparing for sustained volatility. They’re investing in the right systems, centralising visibility, and reviewing their renewal calendars with an eagle-eye. They’re digging into their vendor and fourth-party risk profiles—not just on cost, but on strategic exposure. They’re getting serious about where their money goes and who they rely on.

At Omnea, we’re fortunate to work with some of the world’s leading companies and we’re seeing them take this decisive long-term action now. For example Spotify, a company we can all agree is both financially successful and secure, decided to transform their procurement function recently to drive greater efficiency. Not because they need the extra margin to survive, but because it’s good business. Successful companies across our customer base from professional services (Adecco) to technology (Wise) aren’t resting on their laurels either, and are moving full-steam ahead.

Even private equity firms, long used to operating at arm’s length from market sentiment, are being forced to reckon with tighter liquidity, declining margins, and a lack of exits. Portfolios are being marked to market, and the valuations aren’t what they once were. With the IPO window all but closed, and traditional paths to exit drying up, funds are looking inward. Operational leverage—especially via procurement—is no longer optional. It’s the only real lever left. We’re seeing this first hand—last week two leading PE funds contacted me to give a session to their portfolio companies on using technology to drive greater spend control.

And on the topic of IPOs—scrutiny has never been higher. You can’t rely on the return of frothy bull markets where investors look the other way. That era is over. The companies preparing for exit today need to demonstrate resilience, cost discipline, and a clear handle on their supplier and spend footprint. Investors are asking questions that would’ve been inconceivable five years ago—from concentration risk and contract visibility to ESG exposures buried deep in fourth-party vendor chains.

This shift isn’t just about markets. It’s systemic, it’s global, and it’s now being legislated. Whether it’s DORA in the EU, the Norwegian Supply Chain Transparency Act, or the German Supply Chain Due Diligence Act—governments are mandating supplier accountability, transparency, and operational resilience. The regulatory burden isn’t going away; it’s growing, and it’s telling every business in clear terms: take your supplier base seriously.

And then there’s AI. With the pace of automation accelerating and every CFO being asked how they’ll “do more with less,” understanding what to cut—and why—has never been more critical. AI gives you speed, but speed without clarity can be dangerous. You need to cut deep, yes—but only where it makes long-term sense.

If the last cycle was about growth at all costs, this one is about growth with control. Procurement, once treated like a back-office function, is now the core of resilience, agility, and long-term value. It’s no longer just a lever for savings—it’s the foundation for survival and, ultimately, strategic dominance.

I genuinely never thought I’d be back writing market updates. But here we are—and this time, they’re not about Fed speeches or NFP beats. They’re about what happens next inside your business, and how you respond. Because the smartest CFOs I know? They’re moving fast and investing in transforming their procurement functions.